Saturday, June 24, 2006

Welcome back, and this time around we bring you NBA draft issues. On Wednesday, we will endeavor into another Draft. The only question is are the teams going to listen to me and pick who I say they should or are they going to make mistakes. The big questions come early, as they normally do with the lottery. When I put together a mock draft, it works for everyone, equally. The process involves evaluating team need, value, and best player available. So when you’re watching the draft, reference this mock draft and see how close, or not, the respective organizations are to improving their teams.
If you are at #1, who would you take? It is not as simple as grading best player. Regardless as to who you think that player would be, how does that player apply to the particular team. Granted, lottery teams normally need more than one piece, case example is Atlanta. There is only one choice for Atlanta. Toronto, however, has a couple of options. Only one player on that team is untouchable. They may be losing Mike James at PG, Morris Peterson is serviceable, and Charlie Villanueva has been in more trade rumors than anyone else in the league. Not to mention the tantalizing Jermaine O’neal to Toronto for Villanueva and some junk seriously could alter Toronto’s approach to the draft.
Chicago at #2 is another intriguing situation. Hinrich is the guy at PG, Ben Gordon if not traded could also be a centerpiece. Luol Deng is almost as interesting as Villanueva as trade bait. Tyson Chandler and whoever they decide to play next to Chandler just is not good enough. Which is why the consensus has been Tyrus Thomas, Tyrus Thomas, Tyrus Thomas, and maybe LaMarcus Aldridge. Kirk Hinrich, Ben Gordon, Luol Deng, Tyson Chandler, and Tyrus Thomas/LaMarcus Aldridge is a hell of a better team than without it. This is a situation where it is not in the best interest to trade out of their pick even if it puts them only down a couple of spots.
Charlotte Bobcats, what can we say, once an expansion team always an expansion team? Maybe not. Michael Jordan is on board. Although he may be the greatest human to ever lace them up (until Lebron officially takes his crown) I am not sure how he will fair as upper management; ie Kwame Brown. As of today and looking forward to the future of the Bobcats the eventual starting lineup should be as follows:

PG Raymond Felton
SG ? ? ?
SF ? ? ?
PF Sean May
C Emeka Okafor

So, this leaves them with a couple options and none of those should be PF, C, or PG. The first two that come to mind are Adam Morrison and Brandon Roy. There is a problem with this, Adam Morrison could be gone at #1, and Brandon Roy’s value is not at #3-even though his Airness this it is.
Portland at four is less interesting. The last couple of years they have had a morning wood for PG’s. As it stands Sebatian Telfair, Steve Blake, and Jarred Jack are more than enough guards and Portland knows it. Zach Randolph could be nice but he needs help. I am not a big fan of the drafted Euro. Dirk is great even after the NBA finals, but how many Vitaly Potepenko’s and Maciej Lampe’s are there at the top of the draft for every Dirk Nowitzki? It is not in any teams best interest to select a Euro high, even if you truly believe you have the next Nowitzki, Parker, or Kirilinko. However if Thomas and Aldridge are gone Bargnani may be the only hope.
Atlanta, Atlanta, Atlanta, oh my god. This one does not take an expert. But in case you think Sheldon Williams is a good move for Atlanta, please pay attention.

PG T. Lue, S. Stoudamire, and R. Ivey
SG Joe Johnson
SF Josh Smith, Josh Childress, Donta Smith
PF Al Harrington, Marvin Williams
C Zaza Pachulia

What stands out? Joe Johnson is legit. He’s not elite but he can be in that Paul Pierce range, he is a legitamate SG in this league. The Josh boys aren’t there yet, but the ceiling is there. The potential is there to be realized. Harrington is a free agent, but it is in there best interest to resign him. Pachulia is fine and/or serviceable. Keep this in mind, and remember you heard this here first, THERE ARE NO LEGIT CENTERS IN THIS DRAFT. Patrick O’Bryant and Mohammed Saer Sane are the closest thing to it, but like Chris Kaman and others it will take 3+ years for them to contribute as a starter in this league. Atlanta has one selection and one selection only in the first round of this draft. Atlanta needs a PG. And because its Atlanta, I believe taking the best PG available at #5 is acceptable. We always talk value but with this pick there is only one position and it is PG. PG, PG, PG, Damn I swear if they pick anyone other than the best PG available I will lose my mind, literally. If you don’t believe me, tune into http://www.sportstalkcleveland.com/ on draft night and find out. If you want to see a grown man’s head explode on the air, tune in, I dare you.

So on to the Mock. As I said earlier, this mock draft works for everyone involved. Unlike most drafts you will read, you will not find that one team that picks another player they already have four of (Memo to Chad Ford, retire and do us all a favor) Each and every team has been equally evaluated.

1 Raptors Tyrus Thomas
2 Bulls LaMarcus Aldridge
3 Bobcats Adam Morrison
4 TrailBlazers Andrea Bargnani
5 Hawks Marcus Williams
6 Timberwolves Rudy Gay
7 Celtics Brandon Roy
8 Rockets Randy Foye
9 Warriors Patrick O’Bryant
10 SuperSonics Sheldon Williams
11 Magic J.J. Redick
12 Hornets Rodney Carney
13 76ers Ronnie Brewer
14 Jazz Shawne Williams
16 Bulls Mohammed Saer Sane
17 Pacers Jordan Farmar
18 Wizards Hilton Armstrong
19 Kings Maurice Ager
20 Knicks Cedric Simmons
21 Suns Sergio Rodriguez
22 Nets Kyle Lowry
23 Nets Alexander Johnson
24 Grizzlies Mardy Collins
25 Cavaliers Rajon Rando
26 Lakers Guillermo Diaz
27 Suns Shannon Brown
28 Mavericks Quincy Douby
29 Knicks Leon Powe
30 Trailblazers Josh Boone

31 Trailblazers P.J. Tucker
32 Rockets Dee Brown
33 Hawks Denham Brown
34 Clippers Steve Novak
35 Raptors Darius Washington Jr
36 Timberwolves Mike Gansey
37 Timberwolves Daniel Gibson
38 Warriors Marcus Vinicius
39 Bucks Paul Davis
40 SuperSonics Brandon Bowman
41 Magic Gerry McNamara
42 Cavaliers Marco Killingsworth
43 Hornets Terence Dials
44 Magic Allan Ray
45 Pacers Craig Smith
46 Jazz Hassan Adams
47 Jazz Taj Gray
48 Wizards James White
49 Nuggets Aaron Gray
50 Bobcats Aaron Afflalo
51 Lakers Juan Jose Barea
52 Clippers Curtis Stinson
53 SuperSonics Taquan Dean
54 Nets Richard Roby
55 Cavaliers Rashad Anderson
56 Raptors Nick Fazecas
57 Timberwolves James Augustine
58 Mavericks Brad Buckman
59 Spurs Nik Caner-Medley
60 Pistons Eric Hicks

Now this makes perfect sense for everyone. It will not go down this way, however this is how it should go. Just watch, at some point in the following seasons, you will find yourself saying something like I did this last season; “I bet Atlanta‘s kicking themselves in the ass over not picking Chris Paul right about now”, but isn’t that the fun of the draft.
Do yourself a favor, tune into http://www.sportstalkcleveland.com/ on draft day for our live coverage of the 2006 NBA draft for all of our insight and opinions. I guarentee that it will make more sense with more analysis than anything ESPN will give you-they just look pretty and sound like they know what they are talking about. But before you do that check SportstalkCleveland.com on Monday for our exclusive and free NBA Draft E-Book. A downloadable manual on all of the relevant players, rankings, team needs, mathematical analysis on team need vs. best player available, mock drafts and more.

Finally, for our faithful Cleveland fans here’s a quick bit of information or fuel if you will for your water cooler talks leading up to draft day.
There is no excuse, unless they are going to seriously throw the 5.1 million dollar exception at Jay Williams (Formerly of the Chicago Bulls/DUKE), they have to go PG first, period.

1 Marcus Williams (not likely to be around at 25)
2 Rajon Rondo
3 Jordan Farmar
4 Kyle Lowry
5 Guillermo Diaz
6 Mardy Collins
7 Dee Brown
8 Darius Washington Jr
9 Gerry McNamara
10 Daniel Gibson

Granted each player after Collins is not a first round value, but I would rather see the Cavaliers pull a Buffalo Bills and reach HEAVILY, then not pick a PG. Unless you can find a guy worthy of #25 to replace Drew Gooden
Next would be just that. It doesn’t make sense to let Drew Gooden go, unless you have an option that is better. They will not be able to sign Al Harrington who is the only real starting PF available in free agency worth a damn. However I do feel a PF in the second round could fit in and play a role until he is ready to take over the starting role.

1 Marco Killingsworth (he also provides the toughness they need)
2 Terence Dials
3 Leon Powe (if teams are stupid enough to let him fall)
4 Pops Mensa-Bonsu
5 Alexander Johnson

Last pick, and this fixes an issue Cavalier fans are optimistically holding on to. Flip Murray. Everyone loved how he filled in and played well enough in Larry Hughes’ absense. But really, how good is he really? About as good as a rookie who can contribute. Not to mention without Flip on the team, a different player could drastically improve the 3pt percentage that most fans have wanted since pre-Tragic Langdon.

1 Rashad Anderson (did you see him in the tourney? Size + Shooting %)
2 Allan Ray
3 James White
4 Hassan Adams
5 Dwayne Mitchell

If it were up to me, the Cavaliers would leave the Draft with:

PG Rajon Rando Kentucy 6’ 2 180 lbs
PF Marco Killingsworth Indiana 6’ 9 265 lbs
SG Rashad Anderson Uconn 6’ 5 215 lbs

There you have it, hope to have your attention on wed. Its draft day and worth all of the attention we give it at SportsTalkCleveland.com

Thursday, May 18, 2006

The Cleveland Cavaliers are being guided by the hand of God. Not literally. If you are a Detroit Pistons fan, you better come up with some explanation. Let’s go into the series through 5 games in order.
GAME 1 - Let’s not kid ourselves. The Pistons demolished the Cavaliers. This game was a clinic on shooting. Detroit shot lights out. Following a tough shootout series against Washington and combined with the fact that the Pistons shot so well, there was no way in hell Cleveland would come away with a victory. However you call it, there was an issue; Cleveland had to develop a game plan for Detroit because they were not Washington.
GAME 2 - Have you ever heard of the saying, “you need to spend money to make money”? Well here’s a new one, “Sometimes you have to lose games, to win a Series”. Cleveland knew that after Game 1, they couldn’t win a seven game series against the Pistons with their current game plan. So, it would take some lumps, but evaluating the situation on every possession in the first half, a new game plan. By halftime that game plan was realized and was tested in the second half. Erasing a 27 point deficit and only losing by 6, the plan had begun to take shape. The only thing left was how to get into Detroit’s head?
GAME 3 - The key to this game is a factor that most viewing with a naïve eye could not detect and confused for Lebron James having an off shooting night. Not so, within the plan involved an intricate detail that would be so unexpected it would force the Pistons would almost be forced to play their entire game differently. If you are Detroit, you’re number one focus is to not let Lebron beat you. No one really believed that Damon Jones (pre Playoffs pronounced AE-MUHN OHH-N‘S for no d and no j) or Donyell Marshall or guard named Flip or a center named Z could ever beat the mighty mighty Pistons in their best wet dream. Focus on James, and allow the rest of team to relatively do what they want as long as James was held in check. Well, knowing that’s how they would handle it (as well as knowing that Flip Saunders is terrible at making adjustments in the playoffs), Lebron in effect schooled the Pistons by intentionally not shooting and not attacking the basket. In the middle of the third quarter, there was a play where Lebron touched the ball four times on the third time he looked down the lane from the top of the key, and believe me Johnny Knoxville from The Ringer could have scored. Lebron was not scoring on purpose, and doing it excessively so. By the early part of the fourth quarter, the Cavaliers could see that it worked, indeed the Pistons had over the course of three quarters redirected their defensive. The game was still relatively close-for the Cavaliers plan (i.e. +/- 10 points). At this point totally giving up on Lebron and concentrating on everyone else. Like a lion in the brush watching his prey from afar and waiting for just the right and perfect moment, it would be Lebron who would flip the switch and turn it on. While the game was still within 10 with about 3 or 4 minutes left in the third quarter, just as the Pistons began to sit on there heels, he made his move and pounced. Like a heard of oxen, the Pistons were caught off guard as soon as they came back to guard Lebron from completely taking the game over, he would flip the switch going back to his supporting cast, who would in turn find Lebron yet again. As a defensive unit they looked like the combination of a puppy chasing its tail and older brothers playing monkey in the middle with the youngest brother. The Pistons were the young brother. Completely lost and devoid of any sense of strategy. It was the perfect football analogy-which lends me to believe it was more James than M. Brown. Executed to perfection. Run the ball consistently don’t even look to pass and don’t even screen for that matter. Then when the defense stacks 8 or more in the box, pull out the play action pass over the top and burn them. Game 3 left me asking Detroit, “How does it feel, to get utterly out played, out schemed, out coached and out executed in every way by games end?” So in turn, because the Pistons felt they were going to sleep their way through this series, Rasheed Wallace felt the need to run off at the mouth. After Game 3, Rasheed Wallace claimed in his eloquence that the Cavaliers played the last game in the Q for the season insinuating that Game 3 was the only win we would enjoy. Every playoff season R. Wallace is good for one guarantee, who can blame him; his teammates are 4-0 in covering Rasheed’s guarantee spread. Go back in history, anytime ‘Sheed guarantees a victory, it’s his teammates that play well and Rasheed is the one that sucks it up.
GAME 4 - Knowing full well that Detroit would have to be clinically retarded to allow the Cavaliers do conduct themselves with an identical fashion. Cleveland, however, realized that by strictly adhering to the game plan on defense they had found themselves closer than they thought easier than they thought. This was no longer about winning a single game or staying respectable-this was much much bigger. They had gotten to Detroit, and it wasn’t as hard as they thought it would be. Mike Brown in conjunction with Lebron James, Donyell Marshall, Eric Snow, Flip Murray, and Z took their collective playoff experience and devised a more critical and effective game plan. Come Game 4, they were still going to stick to the game plan, but this time staying in the game wasn’t enough. They had to become Detroit’s defensive shadow. They had to be on Detroit so tight, that when the time came to make a move to create seperation-they would be so close on the scoreboard, that Detroit would most definitely make a mistake. Detroit had to know it was coming and by staying close they knew it would be difficult if not impossible to stop the inevitable. In real time, the plan worked even better than the way it was drawn up. Cleveland wasn’t close, they were leading the whole thing. Cleveland was ahead in the score for over 80% of the game. That is something that needs to be mentioned. While ahead for so long, Detroit could almost sense the run was coming, you could almost see it in their eyes. When the run came Detroit had no choice but to take it down the tailpipe. And at this point, with the series tied 2-2 Cleveland fans had no choice to say, “hey, the Washington series was tied after 4 games?!” and Detroit fans would have to say, “is this real? Should we begin to worry now?” The answer is most definitely yes. You better believe that the fans have begun to turn after four games and the team itself has begun to wonder how they will go about regaining control of their playoff fate. And as for Rasheed’s Guarantee (fondly referred to as the GuaranSheed).

With the series tied up at 2-2, Detroit was in a tough spot. Luckily for them, similarly like the fate of the New England Patriots, the national media persisted that the Detroit Pistons will not lose because of the absolute undeniable factual and hard analysis that they are the Detroit Pistons. Which pisses me off. Don’t tell me the analysis you’ve derived is merely name recognition. As if the GuaranSheed, wasn’t good enough, Rasheed responded with, “I ain‘t worried ‘bout them cats, they played a good game, but they ain‘t winnin‘ this series, you can believe that. They won‘t beat us in no seven games!”
GAME 5 - Oh shit, the implications of the outcome of this game, is bigger than any game in any series throughout the playoffs concerning any team. For the Pistons if they win, they are in control and the wind will be sucked from Cleveland’s sails and no longer feel they had control over the Pistons. If the Cavaliers win, in effect THE SERIES IS OVER. They would have such a mental edge, and game 6 would be in Cleveland with the possibility that Larry Hughes would return with the Q as raukus as an arena has ever been with the fans sensing an elimination situation for the other team. With the opportunity to play in the Eastern Conference Championship Series would be enough to send Cavalier fans reeling. As the score wavered back and forth in the first two Cavalier victories, the difference is Game 5, the Cavaliers didn’t stay close, they set the bar. Detroit played behind the Cavaliers for 95% of the game. Although, Detroit felt they were in a position to make a run and like a fighter trying to land the knockout blow, they were not prepared to find out that the Cavaliers had a strong chin. After taking every bit of an onslaught and are still standing. We took everything Detroit could sling and never flinched. Now you are looking at a Detroit/Cleveland quarter final series where Cleveland leads said series 3-2 and headed home for game 6. Detroit is in a bad place. And as I’ve said all day, “Give me one single, tangible, concrete, formulated piece of strong analysis to lead you to believe that after all we‘ve seen, Detroit has any chance of being in a position to maintain a lead much less than win a game or even delusional enough to think they can win two in a row”, that’s right I said DELUSIONAL.

Saturday, April 22, 2006

Draft Day is Like Christmas for Fooball Fans

Today, being six days and change away from the NFL Draft, and I couldn't be more excited. Since the last post I made which included a Mock Draft that I claimed was good for all 32 teams, I have changed that Mock Draft at least 4 times. To save both you and me time, I will now direct you to the broadcast website that I work for, to provide you with all of the information you will need. Go to www.sportstalkcleveland.com and in the bottom third of the site next to Rick Morris' name you will find a link to open the all inclusive 2006 NFL Draft E-Book. In this E-Book we (Rick Morris and I) have collaborated to give you a "bible" for the NFL Draft this saturday, and yes even into sunday. Some features found in our E-Book are:

-Rick Morris' Mock Draft
-Jason Jones' Mock Draft
-Top ten Player Profiles at each position
-2006 Draft Class Grades by Position
-Current Day Player Comparisons for Round 1 values
-Jason Jones' Top 100 Big Board (which takes you into round 4)
-Positional Team Needs for all 32 Teams
-Blank Draft Sheets including Teams and Draft Order
-Historical Overview of the NFL Draft

As you can see, the idea is to use this E-Book not only before the draft to prep and be ready for the first round, but also to use in real time. Hypothetically speaking, if team A desperately needs a Linebacker, Defensive Tackle, Offensive Tackle, or a Running Back, you will be able to assertain the player you believe is the best option. As an example applying the afformentioned details; if that were San Fransisco. . . ? Your options being, B.Carpenter, C.Greenway, E. Sims/H.Ngata, B.Bunkley, G.Watson/D.Ferguson, W.Justice, E.Winston/D.Williams, L.White, L.Maroney. With our E-Book, you would be able to crunch the information and create your own conclusion with your own analysis as to who San Fransisco should select, then cross reference that with the big board (whether you agree with it or not) and decide if your decision is good enough or is there a best player available worth taking over that previous analysis. In effect, you are playing GM for every team and deciding what you think they need and compare that to what really happens. And when you tune into the NFL Draft, we understand that the Family of ESPN networks combined with the NFL Network will be covering the draft on location, but we heavily recomend that you tune into sportstalkcleveland.com with your tv on mute. Its not that we are in direct competition with them (even though we are), its that they will tell you everything you already know and even if they try to conduct their own analysis-they will be wrong.
Now here's a test. The self proclaimed, NFL DRAFT EXPERT, Mel Kiper does no more analysis than you or any other casual fan. The sad thing in all of this is his resources. If you are getting ready for the draft you probably watch the senior bowl coverage, the NFL Combine, searching the web for player profiles, and reading draft magazines. I would almost guarentee, that your analysis would be as good and probably better than Mel Kiper's. The sad part I mentioned, ESPN pays for Mel to go to any and all personal workouts, all-star games, the combine, etc. Mel Kiper gets to see all of the things you read about on a first hand basis, yet his analysis is basic and intro level at best. On saturday, you will see what I mean. Click the link, and print out the E-Book, use it as a reference tool during the draft for a more complete Draft Day experience. The average football fan with watch the draft through pick 45. We are giving you the information to stay interested in the draft at least through the 4th round.
Happy Draft Day, and hope to have you as a viewer on sportstalkcleveland.com's all day coverage April 29th starting at 11am est.

Saturday, April 08, 2006

FINALLY, an NFL mock draft that makes sense for all teams


Have you ever wondered why a guy like Mel Kiper even has a job, much less one with the worldwide leader ESPN? If you are a fan of a smaller market team, then you probably have had that same thought. In the sports media industry, I have learned that if the analyst is seen (i.e. television) it is not so important to be right as it is to look and sound the part. Sean Salsbury has played football so naturally, his opinion automatically is taken to have some validitiy. Same can be true about almost any former athlete turned analyst; or at least ESPN and others would like you to believe that is the case. In actuality, one's playing history has little bearing on the X's and O's of the game. So, with that in mind, where do people like Mel Kiper fit in. Maybe one might present his credentials. Maybe he played college ball or even a backup in the NFL and no one has been made aware of it. Just a guess, but I'm pretty sure Essex Community College is not a major hub of college or NFL football talent. Just my humble opinion. With further analysis, Calvert Hall College High School's best athletic talent was Portland Trailblazer's guard Juan Dixon. In an attempt to get to the root of what makes Mel Kiper worthy of being reverred as the foremost expert on NFL draft information, I found that every outlet of information on his is the same regergitated ESPN bio. In that bio what you will find is that they claim he hits on 80% of his picks. Although that may sound impressive, probably 40% of those are what we call "chalk picks". Reggie Bush going first, Eli Manning first, etc are easy picks to make. If you go back and do your own research, I'd bet you would be able predict most of what has happened over the last five years. So, I protest that you take Mel Kiper for what he is, a relative talentless hack. Ask yourself this, if ESPN paid to fly you to every regular season game, all-star game, off-season workout, private workout or anything else, do you think you could do as well as Kiper? I would hope the answer would be yes and probably better. I, personally, take that tact.
So, here today I will give you my own Mock NFL Draft. Granted for the sake of time (yours and mine), I will only give you the first round. Unlike, Kiper, I will add a second round at a later date. In addition, unlike Kiper, I will give equal analysis to each time. My biggest pet peve as a Cleveland fan relating to Kipers picks, is that he doesn't give equal analysis to ALL teams. Of course, ESPN and Kiper give in depth analysis to the New Yorks, New England, Miami, Texas teams, etc. Here I will provide analysis for the Clevelands, Detroits, Tampa Bays, Buffalos, and others. Not to say that my draft will look completely different than Kiper's, but there definately will not be any picks like 12. Cleveland Browns-LenDale White. Seeing as though Cleveland has locked up Droughns combined with the remaining holes on defense and the lack of offensive line help, their needs are no where near RB. Another one to consider that I have seen, Vince Young going to San Fransisco. Even if a team claims to take best player available, it is wasted if that best available adds depth to a filled position where there are other big enough holes. First I will add the Mock Draft that I have revised as of April 6, 2006, then I will go into relative detail as to my line of thinking as well as player analysis.

2006 NFL MOCK DRAFT as of 4-6-06

1. houston reggie bush RB usc
2. new orleans mario williams DE nc state
3. tennessee matt lienhart QB usc
4. new york jets d. ferguson OT virginia
5. green bay a.j. hawk OLB ohio st
6. san fransisco michael huff S/CB texas
7. oakland vince young QB texas
8. buffalo haloti ngata DT oregon
9. detroit winston justice OT usc
10 arizona vernon davis TE maryland
11 st. louis tye hill CB clemson
12 cleveland brodrick bunkley DT florida st
13 baltimore jay cutler QB vanderbilt
14 philadelphia chad jackson WR florida
15 denver /via atl chad greenway OLB iowa
16 miami jimmy williams CB virginia tech
17 minnesota deangelo williams RB memphis
18 dallas santonio holmes WR ohio st
19 san diego tamba hali DE penn st
20 kansas city gabe watson DT michigan
21 new england antonio cromartie CB florida st
22 denver mathias kiwanuka DE boston college
23 tampa bay marcus mcneill OT auburn
24 cincinnati leonard pope TE georgia
25 ny giants demeco ryans OLB alabama
26 chicago sinorice moss WR miami
27 carolina d'qwell jackson ILB maryland
28 jacksonville nick manglod C ohio st
29 ny jets via atl lendale white RB usc
30 indianapolis lawrence maroney RB minnesota
31 seattle max jean-gilles OG georgia
32 pittsburgh roderique wright DT texas

There have been some trade rumors that are not represented here. Due to the fact that these trades will not happen until much closer to draft if they happen at all.

1. New Orleans trades the #2 overall pick to the New York Jets who then turns over to the Saints the #4 overall pick and their second round pick. In my best estimation this would allow New York to pick up an additional pick and still get D'brickashaw Ferguson or Mario Williams.

2. New Orleans trades the #2 overall pick to Denver for Denver's #15 and #22 overall. Although most team's fans do not want to relinquish a top 5 pick, New Orleans has a multitude of holes to fill. The key to this one is for New Orleans, the posibility of adding value with two first round picks far out weighs anyone they could get with the #2 pick. Take Mario Williams, if he truly is Julius Peppers as a DE, the two picks I've slated for Denver makes more sense. The real question is for Denver. Who could Denver possibly want bad enough to give that up.

3. San Fransisco would trade the #6 overall pick to Arizona for their #10 and third round pick. This one actually makes good sense. Arizona would benefit by reaching up to grab Vince Young before Al Davis and Raiders have the opportunity to take him at 7. And for San Fransisco, they have shown moderately strong interest in TE Vernon Davis who is widely projected to go around ten. There is a very good posiblity that Davis would go to Arizona without this trade.

4. Have I really gone this long without mentioning Brett Favre? Well, Favre has claimed that his desire to come back has something to do with being on a competitive team. Of course most believe that team has to be Green Bay. To pry Favre away from Wisconsin, it would have to be big. The only team that has such pull is the afformentioned Denver Broncos. Before you lose your mind over this one, the picks are not enough. Wrap your noodle around this. The #15 and #22 picks as well as Jake Plummer for the honor of having Brett Favre lead their team. For the Packers, if they believe that this would be his last year or two if Favre indeed comes back, this would give them a veteran tested quarterback as well as the #5, #15, and #22 overall picks in this years draft.

5. Not a trade rumor, but a draft movement rumor is next. Believe it or not the Wonderlik test results have evaporated and yes, the Tennessee Titans are that impressed with Vince Young and may surprise the world and take Young over Lienhart with the third overall pick. And before you even ask, word has it that it is Norm Chow-Matt Lienhart's former offensive coodinator leading the charge on this one.

TEAM NEEDS AND ANALYSIS

1. HOUSTON TEXANS-
It is a shame to be the Texans. Sitting there with the most undesirable pick in the top 15. There is no question that Reggie Bush is the number one talent in this draft. Everyone on the planet when asked, would say Houston picks Bush #1 and the Saints are on the clock. With the organization sold on Bush and the fans sold on Young (a local product of houston), they have a solid issue. They would love nothing more than to be picking in a different spot. Now lets look at what the Texans have and don't have. Starting QB, David Carr has been extended contractually. Dominic Davis has averaged over 1,000 yards and 9 touchdowns each of his 3 years in the league. So, believe it or not, they really don't need a RB. If it was my choice, I would bypass Bush and take D'brickashaw Ferguson-a franchise left tackle or Mario Williams-the best defensive talent in this draft. They could take Williams first and go defense in all seven rounds and probably still wouldn't have fixed all of their defensive deficiencies.
2 New Orleans Saints-
This is going to be quick. Let's start with what they have. Drew Brees-QB, Joe Horn-WR, Donte Stallworth-WR, Deuce McAllister-RB, Michael Bennett-RB, Mike McKenzie-CB, and that's about it. Subtract those listed from the whole. Any position or player not on that list is open to be drafted.
3 Tennessee Titans-
Believe it or not, the Titans have slowly improved themselves and don't have as many holes as you might think. QB which is what they are targeting in the first round could be much worse. Assuming that McNair will be the starter (which is becoming a less likely assumption) they still have Billy Volek-who is in a category of two men with Matt Schaub as backups who could play in this league as a starter. They have David Givens and Drew Bennett which is not a bad WR duo. They also have a tailback duo, with Chris Brown and Travis Henry. On defense they have one standout in Keith Bullock, and that is where I would start. However, let's agree that they will grab one of the QB's available at #3. As mentioned earlier, Norm Chow and the front office are smitten with Vince Young. It seems they will compromise logic and pick the best QB based on their best scouting efforts.
4 New York Jets-
Where to start? Do you believe the entire franchise can sit back on the hopes that Chad Pennington is still their Namath? How comfortable do you think Jets fans are about Cedrick Houston or Derrick Blaylock? Some major areas of note would be an offensive line without Kevin Mawai, a defensive line without John Abrahams, no real shut down DB to speak of, an average reciever corp, and Jonathan Vilma is clear and away the best player respective to his position that they have. I would have to narrow down their first round pick to either of the two top QB's or the top RB (hopefully only if they trade down), or the best defensive prospect on the board.
5 Green Bay Packers-
Clearly their best player is Brett Favre followed closely by Javon Walker, then a major drop off to Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila (who most of the league has figured out). . .then what? If Aaron Rogers is next to be the starter at QB, then they really only have one legit star player in Javon Walker. The question here is, do Ahman Green or Najeh Davenport have trade value? Otherwise they couldn't miss on D'brickashaw Ferguson or again the best Defensive player left on their big board. If it were up to me I would start at the Defensive line, then Linebacker, and then Offensive line.
6 San Fransisco 49ers-
Due to the fact that San Fransisco has lost any semblance of a star player young or old (i.e. Julian Peterson or Brandon Lloyd), this is truly best available. Not best available due to need, I mean best available by position. If A.J. Hawk is available, he would fit that description. The only others would be Vernon Davis at TE or Michael Huff at S/CB. Because Huff is clearly the best DB available and could start at any of the safety or corner positions, makes is it a no lose situation or San Fransisco.
7 Oakland Raiders-
When asked how far could Vince Young fall? The answer is here at #7 with the Oakland Raiders. Al Davis loves high risk/high reward scenarios. Granted the jury is still out on LaMont Jordan as a 30+ carry a game back, but I cannot see the Raiders passing on the possibility of having Vince Young using his feet and his arm. . .throwing to Randy Moss. At this point I cannot see a player who could be a bigger addition down the line. Vince Young is good enough (I emphasize good ENOUGH) to start. He could escape Tim Couch syndrome with his feet and he would definately sell tickets. Aside from that, defense. . .defense. . .defense. They have no defensive playmaker at all.
8 Buffalo Bills-
If you listen to the Buffalo Brass, they'd have believing that they are confident in J.P. Losman/Kelly Holcomb. McGahee is for real, when is mind is right and he has decent blocking. Lee Evans is good, but no Eric Moulds, not a pressing enough issue to address in the first round. They did lose Sam Adams, he may not be what he was, but they do need to address the defensive line. They could also use definate help at every defensive position for that matter.
9 Detriot Lions-
I swear if they pick a WR, I just might tear out every strand of hair I have. Roy Williams, Mike Williams, Charles Rogers, Corey Bradford, and Scott Vines are enough WR's. I think it is a pretty safe bet that Joey Harrington will not be back as a Lion, which leaves newly aquired Jon Kitna the heir apparent to take over under center. They have defensive players worth noting. This team can and should win, changing the starting QB should help the progress. This team should listen to the old addage, football starts on the line and works its way out. Start improving from the offensive line and defensive line and out.
10 Arizona Cardinals-
Is there any team whose fans are more excited for the '06 season to start as the Cardinals? I doubt it. The defensive side is as inept as any in the league, Antrel Rolle is the best player on D based on talent. Speaking of talent, they still have Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and a guy that goes by the nickname of EDGE (Edgerrin James for the beginners). The offense is on the verge of being the best in the league. That's right, the High Powered onslaught of the Arizona Cardinals? Every ounce of me says go defense. Maybe a DT, DE, or LB would be a great start to creating balance. As I look at my board of talent, I just cannot see the Cardinals passing on Vernon Davis. I do think he could be there at 10, so much so that I am almost sold on Vernon Davis donning the red, black and gold again (Univ of Maryland school colors as well as Arizona's)
11 St. Louis Rams-
This is the beginning of the teams who don't have gaping holes everywhere. QB, RB, WR is just about good enough to ignore for now. They could get by as is across the board and be a mid-tier team. So, it's time to improve key positions. Which in no particular order would be Offensive line, Linebackers, and Defensive secondary. Looking at the top player at each catagory, Marcus McNeill(OT), Chad Greenway(OLB), and Jimmy Williams(CB). It is my humble opinion that Jimmy Williams is clearly the best of those three.
12 Cleveland Browns-
I could easily spend all day analysing this (my) team and make an arguement for just about 20 of the top prospects. The thing about the Browns that concerns me is not a player, but Phil Savage. If Phil is anything like Romeo Crennel, he enjoys saying things to frustrate the media like, "We will pick the best player available, regardless of position." Well if LenDale White, DeAngelo Williams, Chad Jackson, Vernon Davis, or Jay Cutler are available; as a Browns fan it would be nice to have any of those, but don't NEED any of those. Droughns is the guy and its not time to find his backup. If anything is done with the RB position, I'd like to see Maurice Drew from UCLA in a latter round as a change of pace back, but not at 12 in the first round. Whether you feel good about Kellen Winslow Jr or not 70% Kellen is better than 90% of the TE's in this league. Lastly, I really like Charlie Frye. He really does look like the guy, but there's not enough time for me to go into the intracacies of this team. If Droughns stays healthy, Kellen comes back ready to play, Braylon Edwards comes back at all this season, the offense is good enough to win games. Despite the fact they had the best free agency period of any team, they still need help on the defensive side of the ball. Ted Washington was huge for them(literally and figuratively), but based on talent in this draft at 12, I say load up the D-Line. Here's where we get a little creative. Stopping the run was an issue last season as was getting to the QB. If they are shore up both of those, one thing comes to mind; an aggressive pass rushing DT not to be played a DT. Two DT's worth being drafted in the top 15: Haloti Ngata and Broderick Bunkley. Here's the rub on the two:
Tackles Turnovers
games solo total for loss sacks fumb blk kicks
H. Ngata 11 31 46 8.5 3.5 2 2
B. Bunkley 13 39 60 25.0 9.0 2 0

In my scheme of things, its clear that if either one of these is to be put in at DE in 3-4 setup, it must be Bunkley. Ngata will make a phenominal DT/NT because he never gets pushed back, he owns the middle of the D-Line; 100% of the time. But there is not much reward after that. With Bunkley, you get a decided advantage on sacks, tackles, tackles for loss, and QB hurries. Those stats add to his ability to play DE in the 3-4. This also provides approximately 1,000 pounds on the Defensive line. Imagine this, Brodrick Bunkley is 6-3 310 which would bring on double team as an DE. Ted Washington is 6-5 800 pounds (no he's really 365 pounds) which WILL demand a double team on most every play. Which leaves Orpheus Roye all by himself in single coverage one on one with the right tackle. With the offensive line accounted for, this will allow the Linebackers to shoot the gaps whenever this occurs. Willie McGinest and Chaun Thompson will be unguarded until they get through leaving them one on one with RB's, TE's, and even FB's. When the time comes for Bunkley to take over for a retiring Ted Washington, he will be NFL tested and ready to step in, unless it really works well and can draft another mamouth DT/NT. Bunkley is my #1 choice at 12, unless they trade up which I do not see happening; Phil Savage enjoys his picks too much. Although, I would not object one bit to trading away Lee Suggs, William Green, Jeff Faine, Jason Fisk, and/or Dennis Northcutt.

There it is, my 2006 MOCK NFL DRAFT revision 4-6-06.
With analysis through pick 12. Hopefully these come to fruision if your team is the CLEVELAND BROWNS or any of the teams 1-11. Happy Drafting, and if you're not a Browns fan. . .SHAME ON YOU! !

Thursday, April 06, 2006

As a die hard Cleveland sports fan, there is one fan characteristic that I simply cannot wrap my noodle around. Why is it, that most Cleveland fans refuse to embrace a winner? Is it so basic as the fact most pesimistic fans would say, "Hey, its Cleveland, we never win!" I am the eternal optimist when relating to my Cleveland sports teams. I understand that the collective sports gods have punished the city of Cleveland with their team's success, or lack there of, over the last 40 years. Say that out loud to yourself, 40 years!!. If I've lost you, let me explain. Ask yourself how many "Greatests Players of All-Time" does any one team or city have the pleasure of watching on their team(s)? Example: Chicago-Michael Jordan, Walter Payton. New York-Babe Ruth, Joe Namath. Now ask yourself how many have played for quote, smaller market cities? Kansas City, St. Louis, San Antonio, Denver, and Cleveland. The first answer that should come to mind would be the best pro football player ever (and if I'm being over zealous, at least the best running back of all time). If you're still drawing a blank, the answer is Jim Brown. Statistics aside, Jim Brown is clearly the best running back to ever play the game. For those doubters, Jim Brown accumulated 12, 312 yds in 9 years of only 12 then 14 games a season. Emmitt Smith, who is the current record holder for total yards in pro football history, accumulated 12,631 in 10 seasons at 16 games a season. For further analysis I contest the following. Divided out, 12,631 yds per game divided by 10 years divided by 16 games equals 78.9 yards per game across a ten year span for Emmitt Smith. As for Jim Brown, 5055 plus 7257 equals 12,312 Jim Brown's totals broken down along the line where games played changed from 12 games to 14 games. Divided out, Jim Brown averaged 104.2 yards per game over a nine year career. So, now that we have established the Jim Brown is clearly the best running back of all time statistically, just watch espn classic when they show Jim Brown and/or the Cleveland Browns of the sixties and you will realize how impressive he was. Not to mention, did I say 5.2 per carry, Never Ever Been Done Again. With that out of the way, the idea was to set the field for my theory. That theory reads: When a city enjoys one of the greatest of all-time, as soon as their career is over that city will experience a long period of ineptitude on the field/court. I.E. Jim Brown the greatest running back of all time retires in 1965 and from 1965-2006 the Cleveland Browns have lost two AFC championship games in devastating fashion, anyone remember THE FUMBLE or THE DRIVE? The Cleveland Browns through 2004, was arguably the worst NFL franchise in the league with a close second being the St. Louis/Arizona Cardinals. If losing all of the time wasn't enough, the Cleveland fans were given the Cardiac Kids. A team that was good enought to make a run, but the trade off was that in order to win games it would have to be so close, that anyone over the age of 50 was risking Cardiac Arrest. Continuing all the way to a man named Butch Davis. This also carries over into the other sports. The team's ineptitude is directly and inversely related to the success of the "all-time" player in question. Jim Brown is THE BEST running back ever, so the ineptitude of seccess on the field then spills over into the court and the diamond on all levels. Now to move of the gridiron in onto the hardwood. The Cleveland Cavaliers have never experienced any greatness . . . . Ever. The greatest achievement the Cleveland Cavaliers have is to say, they had the honor of being put out of the Eastern Conference Playoffs by Michael Jordan. I, personally, believe that had Michael Jordan never been born the Cleveland Cavaliers would have at least one World Championship and maybe two. But that would violate the theory. Besides, Gale Sayers and Shoeless Joe Jackson are good but not necissarily the best of all-time at their respective positions-which means Chicago was in line to recieve their Great One. To be ego-centric if I could the Football gods probably got together with the Basketball gods and said, FOOTBALL GOD: "Hey, the city of Cleveland is still riding the glory of Jimmy Brown, whether they celebrate him or not. So, basically even though Mark Price, Larry Nance and Brad Daugherty are good kids, its not their time yet. Is there anything you can do on your end to keep this thing rolling? " BASKETBALL GOD: "Yeah, I think I can help. It may be a little premature, but Chicago is about due for their first GREAT ONE. So, what we will do is, I'll create Michael a few years early and accelerate his skills. Just for added insurance I will make it so he lands in Chicago. This way Cleveland's team will not be in a position to even get to the finals much less win it. But, just so you know this only buys some time, if my records are correct, they should be up for their second GREAT ONE 10-15 years later." The player aply titled the SECOND GREAT ONE we will mention later. So, whether you attach yourself to the Austin Carr, Bingo Smith days or more World B Free, Ron Harper days, or the Mark Price, Brad Daugherty days (oh, did I mention the irony of Daugherty's career ending injury? that's the basketball gods way of pulling back on the perverbial leash of control stopping the destined from excelling) You, as a Cavalier fan have never enjoyed anything past the occasional Playoff run. Jordan over Ehlo is the closest we've ever really felt. And now if both of those were not enough, Baseball. As for Cleveland Indians the opposite end of the spectrum. On one hand you have the Browns, the GREATEST running back ever wins the AFL Championship (not yet merged with the NFL, ie not a superbowl) and then fall into obscurity once that running back retired. The Browns are the middle ground. On the other hand, the Cleveland Cavaliers never win anything, ever; not even an appearance in the championship series. They didn't scale even part of the mountain, they saw the mountain and were forced turn around and go home never even knowing if they could have scaled the mountain. Never once knowing what the view really looked from atop the perspective of a champion. On the third hand of this three handed beast of a theory is the Cleveland Indians-polar opposites to the Cleveland Cavaliers. Unlike the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Cleveland Indians have enjoyed championships (all-be-it so long ago no one cares anymore). I think my great Uncle Clay Barton who died just over 4 years ago was the closest thing to a family member who would've remembered a Cleveland Baseball champion; he was almost 100 years old. Unlike the Cavaliers they have recently stared down the barrell of the #1 contenders gun before battle commenced. The Indians have lined up down the first base line and listened to the national anthem knowing full well that they were one of only two teams left. They were in the process of scaling the mountain. If that wasn't enough, to at least be in the hunt, most of us could have handled the inevitable a little better if they were knocked off the mountain with half of the climb to go. Due to the fact that Jim Brown was so clearly better than everyone else to play his position, falling off at the half way point would be showing favoritism and that would not be fair. Unaware of this theory, the Cleveland Indians charge forward only to reach out for the flag atop the very peak of the mountain known as the 1995 World Series a mere couple of feet away-that flag gets snatched away by the opposition whom was already firmly standing at the top of the mountain even if it was only by a couple of feet. Again in 1997, a similar journey touted as an offensive machine who's pitching will be good enough. They would see themselves go into battle attempting to climb the same mountain we refer to as the World Series. This time they are not staring down a worthy warrior from Atlanta, but a young very well paid team of fish. A moderate slap in the perverbial face of the process of sport. Despite the lack of honor in this fish, one by one good but collectively potentially dangerous. Once again the Indians found themselves within arms reach of the flag that sits atop the apex of the mountain top. Remembering how their last journey here ended and determined to not let it happen again the Tribe lean forward attempting to swipe the flag. Unlike the trip in'95 these Indians felt the flag, could describe what it felt like and at the last moment before hearing the announcement-"your 1997 World Series Champion Cleveland Indians" they were kicked in the gut by those potentially dangerous fish. Case in point as to why most Indians fans hate any team whose chances are firmly hinged on the excessive amounts of dollars tied to each player (or the idea of buying championships). The Indians unlike the Cavaliers actually knew, felt, experienced and understood what it felt like to be a champion if only for a split second even if their fans didn't. So, try to understand, there is a reason why one city, my city, or maybe even your city may feel like the worst sports town in the country-the sad thing is, we here in Cleveland can actually claim that monocre. ESPN2, actually did a countdown to the worst sports towns in America. The Boston Celtics hadn't won a Finals in 20 years, but they had the New England Patriots. The Chicago Cubs have been to a World Series in almost 100 years, but they got six championships from the Bulls. Texas hasn't won anything since the Cowboys last SuperBowl, except the two Finals that went to the Spurs. The Dodgers haven't been a contender since Lasorda and Gibson, but they damn sure had the Kobe and Shaq Lakers. All of that mentioned to equate it to this. The Cleveland Cavaliers have never won anything, ever. The Cleveland Indians haven't won a World Series in over three quarters century. Finally, the Cleveland Browns, haven't won anything since the 1964 AFL championship-which to most people outside the city limits doesn't amount to hill of beans because it isn't a SuperBowl (add that to the list-the one championship in the last 50 years did not take place in the SuperBowl era).
40 Years is a very long time. Generations evolve or erode. In 40 years one person experiences what it feels like to be the best and relates that to his kid. That kid then his expectation although not met by the current team down to his kid. The third generation kid is so fed up with the stories that by the time he has a kid-if excellence is not reached, he begins to resent his team and developes the opinion that his team will not win because it's his team and they never win. It is a defeatist opinion, but if you consider human nature it makes sense. To make it worse Cleveland is a football town. But it doesn't seem that the sports gods care what sport a town gravitates to, as I said earlier, they spread the wealth from sport to sport. That's why no one city dominates all 3 major sports we've discussed here. Now I bring you full circle. In the beginning I ask why can't Cleveland embrace a winner. As I have told over the course of this entry, the sports gods propensity for fairness relating to the few GREAT PLAYERS spread out over a period of time combined with human nature towards that amount of time, added to the near successes or no-where-near successes forces a man, woman, or child to begin to lose faith in the system. So it almost always seems that the very moment of a city's darkest hour when the entire fanbase wants to collectively say f--k it! I give up, that is when the glory of the gods shines the brightest and say in a glowing radiance to all Cleveland sports fans in unison, "and I give unto you THE KID THEY CALL LEBRON"